This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Philly on large ESPN. DraftKings has some strong contests and that I look forward to chasing the big GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $30k belongs to 1st place with a total of $500k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I won my very first chair into it a couple weeks back and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at the $30 prize, and then I will likely have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Main Event Stack, Justin Gaethje AND Edson Barboza
While I pile a fight in money games I need no less than 100 total points. Ideally more like 150 or even more, but I will take 100-point floor together with all the guaranteed win. Together with Gaethje fights, we’re pretty much locked into that 100+ and we’ve seen his fights even complete over 200 DK points. He’s the perfect style for accruing DraftKings points and if we use Edson as well, then we are guaranteed a win and probably 150+ points. Give me that all day. This is how I will be starting my money lineup and then I will work out the rest from there. I shall take the loss because we don’t desire 6 wins in money games. 1st place and 5th place get paid exactly the same in a 10-man double-up, therefore I am not shooting first and I would rather play with it safer with my cash lineups.
GPP play of this week — Enrique Barzola — $8,200
This is not a sneaky play at all but Barzola ought to be a great play if he shoots for takedowns. In his 5 UFC wins he’s 36 takedowns. That is precisely what we want on DraftKings. Each takedown is 5-points and he is able to stand up enough to score 100+ points. If he could score over 100 DK points again here at $8.2k he’s for sure going to win a person $30k. I do expect him to be chalky this week, but he’s too much scoring possible for me to fade the chalk. I will likely be in line with the area on ownership with my lineups, maybe overweight.
Underdog play of this week — Michelle Waterson — $7,600
I like Waterson here since she is the fighter that will be looking for takedowns in this fight. I think she can find a number of she may be able to lock up a submission if that is the case. That’s her ceiling in this struggle, but I like her for money games due to her floor. I don’t see KK finishing Waterson, therefore I think we get three complete rounds of scoring out of her. In a reduction she could place up 30-40 DK points and in cash games which is fine. I will use her in GPPs as well, but I do not believe she submits KK. I’d guess she puts up around ~80 DK points in a decision win when she is able to receive the success.
Fade of this week — Sabina Mazo ($8,800)
I’m spreading my exposure out on most of the favorites this week in GPPs however Mazo is the one I’m interested in the least. I think the only way she outscores her $8.8k salary would be by getting another head kick KO. I don’t think that’s very likely at all and I think a decision win is likely for her. I don’t see her going for any takedowns or obtaining many/any knockdowns, so I do not see the way she scores tremendously in a decision triumph. I have zero lineups using Mazo this week and if I had been making 100 lineups I would still probably full fade her. Hopefully it doesn’t burn me, but she is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 63-41for +210.99 (+$21,099) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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