This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are a lot smaller on DraftKings this week, therefore I believe it’s a great week to concentrate more on money games. The main GPP is the $8 entry that pays $10K into 1st place. That’s the best you to pursue in my opinion. I will have a few LUs that I put into a lot of GPPs hoping I can win all of them, but I will not have many LUs in complete this week. Other than that, most of my play with this week will be in the cash games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a few plays I like for UFC Beijing, in addition to my fade of the week.
Money Game play of this week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I think Song Yadong might be the best drama on the card this weekend and you will find 4 fighters priced greater than him. Yadong is a -500 favorite on Saturday and I think this is a fight the UFC is wanting him to win in his home nation. I believe in tournaments, Yadong is going to be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 girls fighters priced over him, with substantially smaller chances of winning ITD. I think you may make a situation to fade him due to his ownership in GPPs, but in cash games we do not care about ownership. I think this is a good spot to lock at a win and maybe ~100-points, and then try to find 3 more wins that we can afford. More frequently than not 4 wins gets the job done in cash games.
GPP drama of this week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This battle has got the 2nd highest FDGTD lineup on the card in -400. There’s also worth on Hu Yaozong with him being $600 cheaper and the betting line being almost even. Normally when there is worth like that within an underdog it makes them one of the more popular fighters on the card. I don’t think either of these guys are UFC level fighters, but I’m a little more impressed with what I’ve seen from Coulter compared to the inexperienced Yaozong. I think getting Coulter at GPP lineups in a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense that weekend in a fight that should not move all 3-rounds. If both of these men get an early end they will likely be about the winning lineup. I am guessing Coulter are the reduced owned man of both and that is what makes him my GPP drama of this week.
Underdog drama of the week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really are not many underdogs I like to target this week for UFC Beijing. I have not loved producing lineups this week since I hate plugging in 2 underdogs once I think virtually every favorite will get a win. I believe the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou because he has a clear route to success and he has won in this matchup before. The path to victory for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has got the ability to be able to KO anybody on the planet. If he can get a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends upon the 1st place lineup, especially if it is an early KO. From the first battle between these two guys Blaydes managed to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou was able to get up pretty quickly each time. If he is able to end up like that again here, then I don’t see any way Blaydes will have the cardio to attempt and wrestle for 5-rounds. I think Ngannou is your scarier man on the feet and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to attack for extended periods of time. I think Ngannou is reside for an upset here but onto a card, I don’t like many underdogs I believe he’s the best one to target with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I really don’t like targeting any of these women in the $9k selection. I think that they should all get wins, but I don’t find any of them becoming 10x their salary. For Mueller, she would need at least 92 DK points to strike 10x and that I believe she has to receive a finish to make that occur. Mueller has 5 wins her MMA album and just 1 of the wins did not go to conclusion. She only scored 72 DK points in her 1 UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she won’t be winning anyone a tournament. In addition, I think Zhang and Xiaonan have better chances of winning than Mueller does this that is the reason why I chose her over those two as my fade of this week. I won’t be making a great deal of lineups this week however if I had been making 20 lineups afterward Mueller would be on among them.
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